Where We Stand Now

 


From day one, the PlayStation 4 began crushing it, and now, three and a half years later, it's still dominating the competition. In fact, according to some reports, it was still moving roughly a quarter million units a week at the start of the year. Then there's PSVR, a VR add on for PS4, which has moved nearly a million units since it's launch late last year. Add to that the fact that PS4 software sales are booming, with some weeks seeing nearly one million game sales from the PS4 games that rank in the top ten sales alone, and that PS4 games are consistently dominating the top ten software sales each month, and you see that Sony has a veritable gold mine in the PlayStation 4, one that brings in probably millions of dollars every week. And with the massive success of their recent games, such as Horizon: Zero Dawn, which game looks to potentially spawn an entire franchise, the PS4 shows no sign of stopping this forward march anytime soon.

So they would be crazy to release the PlayStation 5 anytime soon, wouldn't they? After all, they've not only sold tens of millions of PS4s, they've also resold the PS4 to millions of PS4 owners via the PS4 slim that was unveiled last year, and then millions more have purchased the upgraded PS4, the PS4 Pro, which equals even more resells to PS4 owners. However, one analyst doesn't seem to think Sony is going to simply ride the wave of financial growth offered them by the PS4.


If You Can't Trust A Man Named Demon Underpants, Who Can You Trust?

 
Undahpants!

Macquarie Research Analyst Damian Thong said recently that he expects the PlayStation 5 to be released in the second half of next year.

Yeah. That happened.

But Thong didn't leave it at a simple release window. He also went on to take a guess at the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) power of the PS5, should it release next year. His guess? That it would be in excess of 10Teraflops. To put that in perspective, the standard PS4 has approximately 1.84TF, so this thing's GPU would be somewhere between nine and ten times more powerful than that of the PS4.


But It's Too Soon! ...Or Is It?

 
A mockup of one gamer's idea for a PS5 design

Many have complained that it's too soon for another console, and some have compared it to PCs and mobile phones which upgrade quite frequently, with a new model each year in many cases, but such complaints fail to take into consideration that until last generation it had been the established norm for console manufacturers to release a new console every five years, and in fact, Nintendo still follows this pattern. Last generation the PS3 and Xbox 360 lasted seven years, and many have simply assumed the same would happen in the case of the PS4, though Microsoft has already shown that they aren't sticking to that pattern.

Still more argue that the PS5 needs to release next year because of Scorpio releasing this year. And that would make sense...if only it made sense.
But do you know what doesn't make sense? That. Also monsters in underpants. But mostly that.


Why That Doesn't Make Even As Much Sense As Monsters In Underpants.

 
Sustained.

Scorpio will indeed be much more powerful than the PS4, but an important detail that's overlooked is that, for now, Scorpio is simply the Xbox version of the PS4 pro. That is, Scorpio will not have it's own games if Spencer's words are to be taken at face value, rather it will share games with the Xbox One and the console to follow it. In any case, Scorpio is, by Microsoft's definition, not a new generation console. As such, PlayStation feels no heat from it in terms of a PS5 release date, as the PS4 has the biggest install base by far, as well as it's stellar exclusive title lineup, so the only way Scorpio could make PlayStation sweat is if considerable portions of the PlayStation install base were so minded to sell their console and PS4 game collection just so they could have the prettier version of the third party games that are shared between the PS4 and Xbox One.

Simply put, did we see a mass exodus of Xbox gamers to PlayStation when the PS4 Pro released? Of course not. Neither will we see this happen in reverse when Scorpio releases. One might be minded to swap out their system for a more powerful version of it, but they'll hardly leave the platform they enjoy for another platform with nothing more to offer but improved graphics on some of the games they want to play. Most wouldn't anyway, because if you're invested enough in gaming to care about paying full console price for a graphics upgrade, you're invested enough to have amassed a considerably sized library for the system you've had for a few years now.


So What You're Telling Me Is, You Have No Idea?

Only sort of.

You see, the fact remains that Sony could choose to release the PS5 next year so as to transition straight from high sales figures into a new generation and hopefully manage to harness much of the momentum gained by the PS4, plus it would let them beat their top competitors, Microsoft, to the punch with the next iteration of a full scale system upgrade.

However to release next year could be more detrimental than helpful for PlayStation in that not only would they be cutting down on the amount of profit they could see with the PS4, but they would also run the risk of causing people to shy away from the PS5 slim model which would likely happen at some point, as it would mean the PS4 slim released only two years before the PS5 rather than roughly halfway through the console's life cycle as is usually the case. Not to mention that beating Microsoft to the punch with the next full step in hardware iterations, while giving a nice boost in the short term, would put them in an awkward position when Microsoft released their next full step console two to three years afterward and dwarfed the PS5 in power for the remainder of the PS5's life cycle.

No, it's far more likely that Sony will wait until around the time that they anticipate the next full step console from Microsoft to release before releasing a PlayStation 5. Neither they nor Microsoft (or Nintendo even) can afford PlayStation getting too far apart from Xbox in full step console releases. The game industry suffered greatly from a lack of generation stability prior to Nintendo and Sega establishing the five year cycle (even if Sega abandoned it and tanked as a result), and to have three consoles all sporting different full step iteration periods, and thus running three generations at one time, would make the game industry into a chaotic mess.


But That's Just A Theory. A Video Game Console Theory (please don't sue)

In the end, this PS5 comment is nothing more than a theory from one source, and though it could happen, it's far from likely at this point. If I were to offer a guess, it'd be to look for a PS5 in 2019, or perhaps 2020. Besides, think of the advertising fun you could have with releasing a system offering improved graphics in the year 2020.

As for GPU, I'd venture that it'd be considerably more than 10TF personally. Perhaps more in the neighborhood of, say, 15-20TF. After all, PS4 and Xbox One doubled the power of their predecessors after seven years, and Scorpio looks to triple it's predecessor's GPU after only four years. So speculating upwards of even 25TF for a 2019 release at this point wouldn't be unimaginable, but let's stay conservative on the guesses, shall we?


What are your thoughts? When will we see a PS5? And what about that GPU? Whichever way this goes, I for one am looking forward to it, while loving every minute of the current generation.

I totally see it being released in 2020 due to Japan being in the spotlight worldwide for the Summer Olympics and that extra amount of advertising.

I honestly have the feeling that PS5 will be some gimmick console that will not be a true home console like its predecessors. It's true that Sony still has the ghost of the so failed PSTV floating around their headquarters, but seeing how the Wii actually made Sony and Microsoft follow suit years later with Move and Kinect I totally see a gimmick console from them as well.

The thing with Sony is that they could keep their current consoles as their main product, because I doubt we will see an increase in graphics or performance this soon after the Pro. Therefore, the Pro would be kept around as a main home console while PS5 would be some kind of gimmick or hybrid. That way Sony would still maintain their old style (just like how they didn't bet the PSTV to be their new thing) while trying their luck on something else and at the same time keeping the Pro from having a very short life.

We'll see what happens, but Sony has always released a new console two years after the generation was started, which means 2019 could be the logical answer and 2020 makes sense for a one-off event that could use some serious marketing. I don't see 2018 being either logical or possible, but that's probably because I'm not an analyst

EX Palen : I can always count on you to be interested in Sony news. lol Thanks for reading.

I don't expect a gimmick console from Sony at any point really, of course bear in mind that I don't view the PSTV as a gimmick since it served a legitimate purpose even for the core gamer.
And actually Sony was using motion control a full generation before the Wii released, with the Eye Toy on PS2, so I don't expect them to follow any pattern set by Nintendo unless the Switch ends up being some sort of "miracle" console like Game Theory set forth as a possibility (I plan to address that soon too).

And even if Sony did make a gimmick console, I don't think they'd risk tainting the PlayStation [insert number] name since that's their main line of consoles, and at this point, their main line of business period. I know some have speculated that it could be a microconsole, or, a console with no disc drive, but I don't think that'll happen yet either, though it would be far more efficient from a business standpoint as well as a consumer standpoint, but internet still isn't readily available to everyone, and I think the crowd that can't download is big enough to hold Sony back from a drive less system.


As for 2018, I think it's possible given how MS is releasing the Scorpio this year, but I don't think it's smart, and if Andrew House has done nothing else, he's helped PlayStation stay a very smart course of action since his return, especially since 2013. So yeah, I think technically could happen, but I agree entirely with you that it just won't happen. PS4 still has far too much untapped potential. They can do so much more to monetize it, and they know that. Plus I still don't think they want to release potentially years before MS does. 2018 PS5 has bad business written all over I think. 2019? I can see that as a real possibility. 2020? Oh yeah, prime opportunity, and PlayStation does excellent in capitalizing on opportunity, much like you said.


Take the 2018 prediction with a grain of salt though. People have been predicting "The PS5 could quite possibly launch next year!" since at least early last year. lol I just found this source, and his specifications, pretty interesting.

While I would love to get my hands on a PS5, I don't think SONY can really do anything good with releasing it in 2018, I feel that they should give even more time before releasing the next one. I would prefer releasing it early 2020 at the earliest

We can only wait and see though.

A PS5? Already? Isn´t it a bit too early for that? I was expecting an official announcement by late 2018, but today? Hard to believe.

Like you said, it wouldn't make sense, although it is nice to think about. That would be an absolute disaster with them releasing FF7:Remake, seeing as how much they expect to gross with that. Two or three years seems reasonable, I hope they don't feel intimidated by MS and move too soon. Its consistency and quality that makes me stay with PS and why I've never bought an X-Box. (Still good in its own right as well.)

It totally makes sense for them to release the PS5 in 2018. If for nothing else than to beat Microsoft to the punch. Should be an interesting E3 this year...

Think about it this way, reiterating some points already made; the main smartphone brands are constantly coming out with new models every year or two and people upgrade them every 1-3 years. These devices cost more than your average home video game console and people don't bat an eye to it. So don't be surprised if Sony and Microsoft pull something similar (Heck Nintendo has been doing this for years) where you see an updated current console with added features every year, then a new main console every 3-5 years (give or take). It may irritate gamers that are used to a 5+ year lifespan on a console, but this is the wave of the future. Especially considering the hardware on a console is already outdated before it's even released to the public.

TouchMaster97 : Thanks for reading.
Well like I said, it actually isn't too soon if we look at literally any console generation except the last one. However, I agree that it won't happen. I think we're much more likely to see a repeat of last generation's life cycle length than we are to see the ones before that embraced again.


mikedavike28 : Yeah, it seems a bit farfetched to me, even if the cycle length would be a revisiting of the previous generation cycle. As for how I would feel about it, I agree that it's nice to think about it in ways. It would be awesome to get it sooner rather than later, but at the same time, the longer they wait, the better the system will be probably.
Thank you for reading!


Jordanv78 : Thanks for reading!

Indeed, five year cycles have been the norm all of my gaming life up until last generation, so I could see a PS5 next year in that regard, but with the way the PS4 is still rolling, and the release of the Pro last year, I don't really expect it until, say, 2019 or 2020.

And there isn't really anything to beat MS to the punch on, since the Scorpio is basically an answer to the Pro as it stands. I still insist that it'll run the next generation of games as well though, and if not, then the next Xbox will be multigenerational.
And upgrades like the Pro are fine with me, I just want to avoid going multigenerational like I say I believe Xbox is. The reason being because that makes developing and shopping for systems much more complex and destroys the point of console gaming in so many ways. But a PS5, PS5 Pro, and even PS5 Pro 2? I'm cool with that personally. I'll probably always stick with the base system, but as long as no games are locked to the upgraded console, I don't mind them existing.

Eirinn : You make a good point. I do believe that the lines between the "generations" are going to blur and that these companies are going to start frequently releasing "multi-generational consoles"

I hope that they don't release games locked into these "upgraded consoles" ....but these companies want to try to encourage more people to buy their hardware. Most hardcore fans of a console are going to purchase in the first year of the system being released (depending on availability)and they need to do something that enhances these sales after the first year or two. Constantly releasing these "upgraded" consoles as well as games locked into that platform (or at least games with added features/content for that platform) probably seems like a good idea to them on paper. I just hope it's kept to a minimum.

I'm fine with it, as long as they continue to support some things. There are games intended to come out in 2018 on PS4, and if they didn't keep their word I'd be severely let down.

If they did like Nintendo and supported both the 3DS and the Switch even though the Switch is newer, that would be great. I'm always a generation behind, I'd hate to have to wait even longer to get the games I was looking forward to in 2018

yoshirulez! : Yeah PlayStation has always made it a point to support last gen for a bit. Assuming you mean games period, and not first party games, since I'm unsure about that. As third party goes though, PS3 was still getting games regularly until mid or late 2016. It still gets some I think, but support tapered off quite a bit last year, but that was three years after PS4. So if a PS5 came out next year I'd expect PS4 games being released until around 2020 at least.

That said, I still don't expect a PS5 until at least 2019 or 2020.

I personally would be excited and a little sad to see a PS5 announcement at E3 this year or next. I need to start saving up regardless.