Disclaimer: In this article I refer to "my current sources". This should not be taken as an implication that I have access to any inside information on the matter -- I do not.
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Recently I posted an article on here about analyst Damien Thong's prediction of a 2018 PS5 launch. I also disputed said claim, but in the end was forced to relent and say that there was no way of knowing for sure. Well now there is...

Sort of.



Shawn Layden On The Future Of PlayStation

In a recent interview, Layden spoke about many aspects of PlayStation's future, the goals they've set and how they plan to get there.

First up, and probably most important, he confirmed what Shuhei Yoshida and Mark Cerny both said in the past: PS4 Pro exclusives will never happen. He also echoed Cerny in saying that generations will definitely continue. He did go one step further however and said that PS5 will happen, but he also said that it will "probably be some time."

So here we have a direct contradiction of Thong's prediction of a 2018 launch for PS5, and also a direct contradiction of the suggestion that PlayStation intends to kill generations (though the latter has been confirmed before), and seeing as both statements come from the top of SIE, it's safe to say they're accurate. What we don't have however, is a launch window, which as we know from comments previously made by Andrew House, isn't likely to happen until there is an actual box to show and the console goes up for sale. Until then we can only speculate how long "some time" is.


It may be some indication that "some time" is at least a few years, that the company has stated that they're intending to push for a PS4 install base of more than 100 million, while the PS4 still sits at roughly 60 million. Layden said that this is going to be accomplished by offering titles that will draw in more people to gaming. He was careful however to state that they aren't trying to grow their share by drawing in the market share of other companies (though it's doubtful that they wouldn't like that. What company wouldn't?), but rather to grow the market by pulling in new people with PS4 exclusive titles such as Spiderman.

With a goal and strategy in effect even now to reach an additional 40 million PS4 sales, it isn't likely that they have any intentions of releasing a PS5 over the next couple of years, especially when you consider that it's been almost four years since the launch of PS4 and the number still sits at only 60 percent of that goal. Although with the current adoption rate of PS4 (based on my current sources of information), coupled with the price drops of stock PS4s to $250 and the fairly recent release of the Pro and Slim, the growth of PSVR, and new console selling exclusives, it could be accomplished in three or four years probably, or so I would guess.


And so it is that we're back at square one: "when?" It's looking more and more like 2020 is a viable window, but we shall see. For now the PS4 is still improving, gaining huge exclusives, and shows no signs of stopping, so let's just enjoy the ride, shall we?

Absolutely no surprise. 2018 was far too early, the current generation consoles are still getting power-ups.

Sony killing generations could happen, simply because they keep releasing more powerful versions of the same console. Being Sony, they could probably attempt to do with consoles what they're doing with phones, not having a clear definition of what generations are. After all, console generations were determined by power in the 70s, 80s and 90s, but now there are power-ups to existing consoles that make generations quite blurry.

Anyway, PS5 was sure to happen, just because some day the PS4 would update its design and would also change its name for marketing purposes even if Sony does kill generations. As for the release window, 2020 is their best bet due to the world's spotlight being set in Japan. Also, the PS4 was launched 7 years after the PS3, which means that a 7 year gap from the release of PS4 gets us into 2020 (more or less).

It would good to wait at least a couple more years before the actual release of the PS5, in my opinion. I remember your article about the prediction of a lauch in 2018. At first I thought it seemed way too early ... but now it seems it IS too early, and rightfully so. I think 2020 could be a great year to expect the PS5. It'd be a good start to a new decade of gaming, sort of lol

Also, in an unrelated matter, the Crash Trilogy has already been a "massive success." It has created some reports from insiders that suggested that SPYRO could be Sony's next remaster. I know we talked about it briefly in your Crash thread, but now it seems to be a very real possibility.

Just figured I'd update you on that

I wonder if, at the last minute, they don't call it the PS5 and instead call it something else. They've went with PS# for quite some time, I wonder if they'll change it up. But what I don't get is, how will they make a new console? Are they going to 1up the specs of the Xbox One X? It seems like all that power is really unnecessary. (Aside from Destiny 2 only running at 30 FPS on console)

Honestly, as long as my friends continue to play the PS Systems, I will probably get the PS5 when it comes out. However, I use it as an entertainment system, similiar to my XBOX ONE S, as I don't play games as much as I used to. 

That being said, I will quickly get rid of my PS4 Slim if they say that the PS5 will play PS4 games. The only thing that would upset me is if they did that, re-released games on the PS5, and then didn't let the PS4 and PS5 gamers play with each other. I don't want to have to buy another copy of a game I already own just to stay up to date so I can play with the majority of my friends. 

EX Palen : Well upgraded consoles don't really eliminate generations, so long as there is always a clear distinction between each full increment. 2020 seems about right to me at this point, though I could see it being later, but I don't think it'll be any earlier. 2019 wouldn't shock me, but I would be mildly surprised.


MattyIce : Yeah, I'm still sticking with 2020 myself.

As for Spyro, there's an upcoming release of Jak and Daxter, Jak 2, Jak 3, and Jak X Combat Racing (Hope I got that title right), plus Activision is saying they're toying with the idea of a new Crash game. Spyro was mentioned at one point, but not directly by Activision, and apparently the old Spyro demo code in Crash 2 (I think?) is acknowledged in the Crash trilogy when you enter it (though it doesn't unlock a real demo) so there's speculation there too. It would be great to see that happen.


yoshirulez! : Oh yeah, they'll definitely one up the power of the One X. As for why, the power is used for more than graphical fidelity. For instance, complexity of algorithms, larger game worlds, and so on. But even then, while the Pro and One X allow for higher resolution than the standard systems do, there is still room for improvement in raw graphics materials and such, draw ability, lighting accuracy blah blah blah. lol There will always be room for improvement.

And I think the numbers will stick because that's just their thing. Who knows though? I never thought they'd change the dualshock either.


thing1 : Yeah, given that they allowed cross play between PS3 and PS4, and even PS4 and PS Vita, I figure cross play between PS4 and PS5 will be allowed. It all comes down to whether the developers will implement that feature or not though.

I also don't expect PS5 to be backwards compatible with PS4. I mean it could happen, but they seem adamant about not doing it with PS3 and PS4. Honestly I don't want it to be, but it certainly won't be the worst thing if it is.

I read an article just recently where Michal Pachter said he believes that the PS5 will release in 2019 which seems about right to me. Just based on current trends in the hardware market anyways.

He also stated he thought the unit WOULD be backwards compatible with PS4.

This next console for Sony will most likely be a considerable jump in specs, not only to do the regular "one up" from the last generation, but also to try to (somewhat) keep up with the constantly growing PC gaming market.

Jordanv78 : I'm reading that article just now, and he says it will be another half-step over the PS4 after the half-step that was the Pro. 

If they do release it in 2019, it should be backwards compatible for sure. Even though Sony would more than likely keep selling PS4 consoles, they need to understand that being backwards compatible is a success. Besides, maybe the PS5 could be the actual approach to 4K that Sony has been so criticized about in their updates to the PS4's software, making PS4 games fully playable on 4K thanks to a dedicated console just like Microsoft has done with the One X (Scorpio in our hearts).

Still, 2020 is a very solid bet. Sony will have big plans for that year, and I don't see what can be bigger than the announcement of the PS5. Maybe it gets announced during 2019, but I don't see it being available before 2020. I'd personally consider 2019 a bit rushed, due to the Pro staying a mere 3 years in the market before being replaced by an entirely new generation. They're still using the Pro and regular PS4 as testing fields for software updates, so unless there are reports on the success of these tests (which right now "success" isn't an accurate word to use) there's no point in moving ahead with a new console.

EX Palen : I see your points for sure. Honestly fall 2019 sounds like a good time frame to me. Im figuring they wouldn't rush to market if they didn't have what they thought was a solid product. Another year on top of that? That would be SEVEN years since they released the first version of PS4 in North America, which in tech years is ANCIENT.

The Console manufactures feel more rushed these days to make the biggest and best new thing. Although 2-3 years seems a bit faster than what we are used to, console manufacturers know that they no longer can wait the 5 years or so that was the norm in the past if they want to stay competitive and attract people to buy new hardware and help them actually turn a profit on their hardware by being able to keep selling them at FULL price. Especially considering the things are already outdated when they are released in comparison to PCs for the gaming market.

I figure the half-step every 2-3 years (no matter what they call it) is now going to be the norm for consoles.

Jordanv78 : If it is indeed BC compatable for games, I will definitely get it. That means that I could continue to play my Overwatch PS4 disc, on the improved PS5. 
If they include PS3 BC as well, it'll be a day 1 buy and a huge purchase for me, as I would more than likely definitely get all the God of War games on disc. 

Well at least with Sony we won't be expecting any huge surprises, 

I would agree that 2020 is probably a realistic time for it to come out. Maybe even marketing with the fact it'd be the new console for the new decade or something.. 

As for specs who really knows.... 2-3 years is a long time for advancements in computer tech. It'll obviously blow anything out of the water when it does get released... Unless Xbox try to launch another new console as well..  Although it'll probably be behind PC still... Maybe something that's slightly better than a high end gaming pc now.. Might be a good estimate. 

Regardless it's too soon to start guessing and worrying about stuff like backwards compatibility and any software as well. 

I'm honestly still waiting for a console to go fully digital... well one from a major company anyways.... Either that or there will be a new replacement for disc's at some point...  Ah well.. I'm just spit balling now... 

Either way.. It'll probably be a decent console... I think Sony are probably the most reliable when it comes to that at least.

Sonicmcmuffin : Unless a fully digital console has some kind of trade in system, I probably would not buy it. I prefer hard copies of games because what happens if I spend 30 on a digital copy of a game that I was hyped up for, and then just hated ( similiar to Elder Scrolls Online ) ? That's 30 down the drain. 
The reason I prefer a hard copy of a game is because it's more real to me. Also, like I said above, if I don't like it, at least I can return it, or at least trade it in to some shop and get something out of it. 


As for the next advancement, maybe native 3D? That'd be dizzying.