WTF!

I honestly don't know what to say, I don't have any evidence or suggestions on who to vote off.

By the looks of it it could be based on who the at least (2) remaining loose cannons decide to kill.

As i have no way of proving anyone is good or bad. I will vote no kill

Four deaths? Sonicmcmuffin seems a bit suspicious by voting for no-kill when there's only seven people left. My vote goes to sonicmcmuffin.

totaldramaman2 : I will let you know that it's also suspicious to just pop in the thread after being inactive up until there's only seven people left and immediately throwing an accusation. You were just barely saved from being lynched last game, but there does not appear to be a Researcher to save you this time. The only reason I'm not voting for you right away is because I know from experience that you may draw unnecessary suspicion to yourself.

I have 2 3 things to say, for other people to mull over: first, I'm pretty sure that totaldramaman2 is a special because I noticed him sending a PM today, and we know all the PMs were sent in today. Second, I think sonic has a good chance of being a special as well, since he took a long time to send me a sloppy PM, which implies to me that he was making it look like he was just sending me a PM but sent more than one. Third, silverthundr is acting a lot differently than he normally does in Mafia games, which is making my internal emergency alarm blare like crazy. Someone called him a fake tree, which looks even more to be the case with drag being a real tree.

Oh, and before I forget...

Morsalbus : Come defend yourself before someone decides being quiet is too suspicious and fries you. Lots of Loose Cannons too, so it might not even be in the day round that you end up dying if it comes to that.

With 7 people left, I feel like I have to vote, so...

silverthundr

I have several suspicions now, but the fact that you are playing this round different stands out the most to me.

Before I forget this too... I have reason to believe that there were (4) now 3 Loose Cannons. At least. I'm beginning to think that the potato rule involves almost everyone having a gun. :/ Or if Leggy wanted to be truly evil, maybe he gave the tree nuke powers for one night. *Shudders* That... would be cruel...

1. silverthundr
2. Morsalbus
3. totaldramaman2 - sonicmcmuffin
7. sonicmcmuffin - no kill
8. drag00n365 - tree
9. KiddoCabbuses
12. WarpStarFerret - silverthundr

You know what? Considering the post that totaldramaman2 made, coupled with the fact that I'm fairly sure he's a special of some kind, I think he's more suspicious than silverthundr after thinking about it. With silver, as far as I know he could simply be acting erratically for the heck of it; with total, I KNOW he has an agenda of some kind after adding up the pieces, I just don't know what. I think he's probably Mafia that's getting ambitious after the huge night round that just happened.

VOTE CHANGE: totaldramaman2

Just as a heads up people, I think this might be the last day round if we DON'T hit a Mafia member NOW. Furthermore, We have the added pressure of needing to hit someone who has the potential of causing a night round death. By my count, if we don't hit a Mafia killer now, the Mafia is poised to do a clean sweep of everyone not Mafia or drag this next night round. No pressure, just sayin'...

Also, I don't think there's a thug this round, after considering everything. There might be, but only if there's no Mafia Loose Cannons, and only Town Loose Cannons. I think mlb's death strongly suggests that there's at least one Mafia Cannon though.

WarpStarFerret, you changing your vote so much seems quite suspicious. I do have a question - where was I even mentioned as possibly being a tree?

If I'm acting so suspicious, why change your vote? I don't like that. You're too willing to flipflop. If it comes down to the final three, and you keep switching between the two, nothing's ever going to happen. Unless of course, you're the Mafya the whole time. But that's a whole different scenario.

In any case, I'm kinda pointing a FoS at you, but I'm not really thinking you're dangerous yet. For now, I'm kind of iffy on Morsalbus. Think you could, uhm, y'know, contribute?

Defend myself from what, exactly? I don't really feel like I have enough information to defend myself or to accuse anyone else, aside from unfounded hunches and vague chance. Apparently there are more cannons than I expected, and they are ripping through the game. I do consider it a strange course of action for sonicmcmuffin to vote no-kill this far into the game, when he normally just guesses even without evidence. Certainly doesn't prove anything, though.

I suppose it's time I make a contribution myself, although not a vote yet. This is more to see if we can get everyone prepared for a vote.



First off, let's take a stab at this statistics-n-logic-wise.


Based on the amount of kills/attempted kills last night, there's probably 3 Loose Cannons alive right now. The likelihood of one -or perhaps two? Nah, significantly less likely than one - of them being Mafia is high.

There may or may not be an Anarchist remaining.

If there is, there is one of two possibilities for what he may be trying to do now;

1) Form an "enemy mine" with the Town while trying to conceal his real identity, hoping there's still a chance for an anarchist win.

2) Be a chaotic force.  (Wooh, nelly! I'm using BOLD and UNDERLINE! I'm so FANCY!) Perhaps try to get himself lynched on purpose, to screw Town over. This would be his mindset if he thinks he has little to no chance of winning.

The remaining roles may not be all that significant in the end, although it's reasonable to expect a Godfather.

The Loose Cannons are the key. Both Town and Mafia want their Loose Cannons alive and the other side's dead or continuing to misfire.

This may even go to such an extreme extent that a Mafia may expose himself to keep the Mafia-sided Loose Cannon concealed.

Of course, this is a very risky move if there's only 2 Mafia left and 2 other Loose Cannons in play, but, well, there's already so much chance and risk in this Round already, so why not add more?

This means you have to beware even of scumtells - they may be someone trying to purposely sacrifice himself for the alignment.



Now, let's look at the general behaviour patterns of the remaining players.

It's generally believed the Mafia are not intelligent this round. We all know who to blame for that. *coughcoughMASTERDASHcoughcough*

This may counter the logic of a purposeful Mafia scumtell, but it's also possible the Mafia may have been pretending to be stupid the whole time.

The Town does not appear to have any guiding roles like Researcher or Sheriff this round, otherwise these would have been claimed in some manner. This spreads an air of mistrust around.... well, basically everyone.

On the note of some player-specific ones;


silverthundr : I'll apologize. I'm the one who told WarpStar that I believed you were faking being a tree. This is what I sincerely believed. It was mostly because of how your behaviours contrasted between night 1 and day 1, and how you put up a "FoS" which Leggy ended up taking as an accusation. I did not state this in a way that put you in a FoS, and I believe you have a power role of some sort.


WarpStarFerret : His flip-flopping appears to make him look nervous, to me. Considering that the Town is the one at a disadvantage here, this leads me to believe he's a vanilla bystander.


sonicmcmuffin : and totaldramaman2: are both giving scumtells, but remember what I said on the logic side here - it's possible one of them is Anarchist, and/or the other is trying to protect the Mafia-sided Loose Cannon.


Morsalbus : I have little information to go with on.


drag00n365 : Appears to have been a smart tree - he stayed silent when it appeared there was a Mafia-sided Loose Cannon, a move which, well, draws attention to Loose Cannons. He may even very well be silent until the end of the game.


KiddoCabbuses : Oh, haha, that's me! I am totally resisting the urge to throw something I think is funny here. I suppose I'll just use this space to tell you who I think is "smart" among the remaining "suspects" - silverthundr and WarpStarFerret. Doing this because I'm still having the hunch that the Mafia are "stupid" this round, and pretty much are winning primarily because of all the Loose Cannon kills. Could be wrong, though - I certainly made some glaring errors last game, after all.
Wheew, that was a mouthful. Time to take a lunch break.

EDIT: If you're wondering what the summons were for, it's because I wanted to try that sometime. Whee. This is actually the first time I did it, too. Worked!
Well, except for totaldramaman, anyway. Wonder why?
EDIT 2: Woah, editing the post changes the formatting quite a bit. How confusing.
EDIT 3: Attempted to fix the formatting. NOTE TO SELF: Don't make a long-ass post and try to edit it for one or two minor things afterwards!

silverthundr : Honestly, I freaked a little when i saw how many people got attacked in the night round, and I made a hasty vote. After taking a little more time to collect my thoughts, I decided that totaldramaman2 was more suspicious than you. And the tree comment came from a PM... I don't remember who said that off hand, it could be one of the dead ones. :/ I DO know you aren't playing the same as normal though. You usually take charge of the situation after a few sensible posts, not go batty early.

Morsalbus : You were used as a smokescreen. It was a rather sloppy one, via a post from pre-death MasterDash, but a smokescreen nonetheless. And you're still alive after the chaos of the night round; I thought there was a fairly good chance you'd die in the last night round. It seems a little off to me that you didn't, but it's not much to go on yet, so I'm not making an accusation of you at this point. I still want you to contribute though, you're always too quiet.

sonicmcmuffin : You need to vote. We can't afford a no-vote right now, and you're only painting a target on your back.

Piecing together all of the info that I have, I believe that there are still 4 (Yes, FOUR) night round kills that can be used each night--2 town and 2 Mafia. That's 4 kills. drag is a proven tree, I don't think he counts as a bystander tally. That leaves 6 people. Logic dictates that 2 are Mafia; one should be a Godfather, and the other should be a Mafia sided Loose Cannon. There aren't any more Mafia or they would have already won due to a 3-3 ratio, and there shouldn't be any less with the number of kills each night. Doing nothing this round is counting on the (By my estimate) 2 town sided Loose Cannons to hit there targets. If EITHER of them misses, it's an instant Mafia win, because the Mafia WILL NOT MISS. That would mean 3 town deaths and 1 mafia death, which would result in a 1-1 ratio of town to mafia, which is a mafia auto-win. Do keep in mind however, that a mis-lynch is also a mafia auto-win.

There's also possibly a lone anarchist somewhere, but I think that's irrelevant now. I don't think the anarchist side can win unless the Loose Cannons miss completely, since the leader died too early.

I simply love all this chaos.

Who thought such a short round of mafia would be so fun.

KiddoCabbuses : You ninja'd me!!! Oh well, we both showed similar logic and we both added something new to the table, so I guess it works out... You stole some of my thunder though.

silverthundr : Well, there you have it. I guess it was Kiddo that told me, I thought it might have been mlb, but meh. mlb correctly labeled tj as suspicous before he died by the way, and he probably told a Loose Cannon. Now that I think about it, mlb was suspicious of both drag AND tj, and both got shot. The fact that he got shot too suggests that he sent pretty much everyone a PM, and sent one or two to the wrong people... :/ Considering the sheer volume of Loose Cannons this round, I'm guessing that's why so many died.

First of all can i explain why i chose to vote no kill.

 I didn't have any information to go on, So i decided that i wouldn't cause us any more damage by accusing someone who i had no evidence to accuse with. Plus i didn't want to weaken our chances of winning anymore, PIcking the wrong person at a time like this will basically condemn us to defeat.

After reading everyones posts. I think i will actually Vote for Totaldramaman2, Out of everyone still left in the game he is the person i suspect the most. He has only posted once in the entire thread which i find extremely weird, What also adds to my suspicion is that he didn't vote in the previous round, i believe it is because he didnt have to show his hand so to speak,  We did all the work for him.

1. silverthundr
2. Morsalbus
3. totaldramaman2 - sonicmcmuffin
7. sonicmcmuffin - totaldramaman2
8. drag00n365 - tree
9. KiddoCabbuses
12. WarpStarFerret - totaldramaman2

silverthundr :
Morsalbus :
KiddoCabbuses :

You guys are left to vote. Take your time now.

So I am suspicious because MasterDash said a tree would get me? I guess I was the only one who wrote that off as nonsensical rambling like the rest of what he said.

Also, I'm not completely convinced there are still 4 kills possible for the night round. Suppose pacman1755 killed his target before he was killed. In that case, there are probably only 3 night round kills left. As for how many of them are mafia and how many are loose cannons, I am not sure. A few rounds ago I would have said with some confidence that mafia only gets one kill per night now, but I am no longer sure how the mafia's killing power is tiered.

legacyme3 :
How many members does the mafia have to have in order for them to get 2 kills a night?

Morsalbus :

The Mafia/Godfather team get one kill per night unless there is a mafia sided special. There can be a mafia sided special of any role in the game basically.

Morsalbus : There should be 2 mafia members exactly, one Loose Cannon and a Godfather--both those roles get a kill no matter what. If there were more, we would have already auto-lost. Any less doesn't really make sense, because that would mean 3 Loose Cannons NOT Mafia sided, and that is insane.

Oh, and I did say it was only a mild FoS. I mostly just wanted you to contribute. You never post enough.

EDIT: Why do I keep getting ninja'd...

my vote goes tto totaldramaman2

totaldramaman2 : I highly suggest you defend yourself. I'd rather go by my own hunches than bandwagon.

Of course, the defence will probably just end up being similar to Morsalbus's, won't it? But hey, at least it'll how you aren't purposely slipping back into the shadows after making an accusation.

Edit: Also, drag00n, we know you're a tree already. You can't vote.