The North Atlantic Hurricane Season started on June 1st 2022 it will go to November 30th 2022. June to November is Hurricane season in any given year for the Atlantic Basin.
Meteorologists, including myself, forcasted an above average hurricane season. Since 1995 the average has been 13-14 named storms, 6-7 becoming hurricanes, and 3 becoming major hurricanes, categories 3, 4, and 5. By this time last year there had been 7 named storms. In 2020 there was also 7 named storms by this time. Here it is almost August and we have only had 3 short lived storms.
So why has the Atlantic been off to a slow start?
The main reason is dry dusty air has been blowing off the Saharan Desert. In meteorology we call this Saharan Dust. It keeps tropical storms from developing. It is mainly common in June and July. The winds blow the dust across the Atlantic. This comes before the Monsoon season starts. Tropical systems need warm water temps, no wind shear, and moist air to develop.
Have us Meteorologists missed the hurricane forecast ?
In short answer no. Climatology August, September, and October are the more active months. November has also had its share of hurricanes. The Peak of the Hurricane Season is from August 15th-October 20th. Basically, we have not even reached the part were the Atlantic typically comes to life.
We are in a weak La Nina to Neutral pattern. La Nina's favor above average seasons. Neutral favors slightly above average. In addition, water temps are running above average.
My thoughts are when the dust settles the Atlantic is going to come to life with tropical activity.
The North Atlantic Hurricane Season started on June 1st 2022 it will go to November 30th 2022. June to November is Hurricane season in any given year for the Atlantic Basin.
Meteorologists, including myself, forcasted an above average hurricane season. Since 1995 the average has been 13-14 named storms, 6-7 becoming hurricanes, and 3 becoming major hurricanes, categories 3, 4, and 5. By this time last year there had been 7 named storms. In 2020 there was also 7 named storms by this time. Here it is almost August and we have only had 3 short lived storms.
So why has the Atlantic been off to a slow start?
The main reason is dry dusty air has been blowing off the Saharan Desert. In meteorology we call this Saharan Dust. It keeps tropical storms from developing. It is mainly common in June and July. The winds blow the dust across the Atlantic. This comes before the Monsoon season starts. Tropical systems need warm water temps, no wind shear, and moist air to develop.
Have us Meteorologists missed the hurricane forecast ?
In short answer no. Climatology August, September, and October are the more active months. November has also had its share of hurricanes. The Peak of the Hurricane Season is from August 15th-October 20th. Basically, we have not even reached the part were the Atlantic typically comes to life.
We are in a weak La Nina to Neutral pattern. La Nina's favor above average seasons. Neutral favors slightly above average. In addition, water temps are running above average.
My thoughts are when the dust settles the Atlantic is going to come to life with tropical activity.