Here it is 2023 and it is hard to believe that 1993 was 30 years ago. From a Meteorological standpoint 1993 was a historical year. You had the Super Storm of 1993. This was a historic winter storm that produced blizzard conditions in the Southern Region of the United States. Another historic part of that storm was it occurred in March. You had several destructive tornado outbreaks, and historic flooding in the Midwest and South.
Then you had the 1993 hurricane season. As a meteorologist looking back at the 93 hurricane season it was a strange season. So what was strange about it? The season was below average in a type of condition that would favor average to slightly above average seasons. The El Nino of 1991/1992 had faded. Conditions in the ENSO region (Equatorial Pacific) had changed to Neutral. Normally Neutral would favor average to above average activity. In addition, water temperatures were near average to slightly above average this would normally enhance activity.
This is why several organizations predicted an average season. Most predicted 10-11 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes (Categories 3,4 and 5). In 1993 an average season would normally have 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. I was in grade school so I did not make a prediction. Now I have looked back and it is easy to see why they made those predictions. A Neutral ENSO would normally have produced average numbers.
Instead, the 1993 was below average, only 8 named storms developed, 4 became hurricanes and 1 became a major hurricane. So why was this season below average with only 8 named storms despite ENSO conditions?
The 1993 season shows us that all ingredients have to come together to produce an average to above average season. In 1993 you had favorable ENSO conditions, and average to above average water temperatures. However, above average Sahara dust persisted into the middle of August. August, September and October are the peak months. Moreover, there was more shearing winds present than they would normally be in a Neutral pattern. The dry air from the dust and shearing winds held development down.
Here are the storms from 1993. *means the hurricane was a major hurricane.
Tropical Storm Arlene- Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall in Texas as a tropical storm. Although it was not the strongest storm it caused a huge flooding disaster. Arlene caused $55 million in damages and 26 deaths due to flooding.
Tropical Storm Bret- Bret made landfall in Venezuela. The tropical storm caused historic flooding over 184 deaths have been attributed to Bret.
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a Tropical Storm. However data on Cindy is sparse.
Tropical Storm Dennis- Stayed out to sea
*Hurricane Emily was the strongest storm of the season becoming a category 3 hurricane. Emily did get close to North Carolina to cause wind damage even though the hurricane never came ashore. a couple of deaths were reported and close to $50 million in damages was done.
Hurricane Floyd stayed out to sea
Hurricane Gert- Gert was the most destructive storm of the 93 season. Gert developed in the Caribbean and eventually made it to the Gulf of Mexico. While in the Gulf Gert peaked as a 100 mph category 2 hurricane. The storm made landfall in Mexico at peak strength. Gert was very destructive in Mexico producing similar results to Hurricane Diana which also made landfall in Mexico as a category 2 hurricane in 1990. Gert caused 132 deaths and $170 million in damages.
Hurricane Harvey stayed out to sea.
No names were retired from the 93 season the following year. However, in my opinion Gert should have been retired. Hurricane Diana that produced identical results was retired the following year. I was shocked that Gert was not retired since Diana was. One reason Gert may not have been retired is Mexico was in an economic and political crisis. Due to being in a crisis that is probably why they did not request Gert's retirement. Bret was another name that some believed should have been retired. However, Venezuela brushed off the danger of Bret. This lead to a high amount of fatalities.
Here it is 2023 and it is hard to believe that 1993 was 30 years ago. From a Meteorological standpoint 1993 was a historical year. You had the Super Storm of 1993. This was a historic winter storm that produced blizzard conditions in the Southern Region of the United States. Another historic part of that storm was it occurred in March. You had several destructive tornado outbreaks, and historic flooding in the Midwest and South.
Then you had the 1993 hurricane season. As a meteorologist looking back at the 93 hurricane season it was a strange season. So what was strange about it? The season was below average in a type of condition that would favor average to slightly above average seasons. The El Nino of 1991/1992 had faded. Conditions in the ENSO region (Equatorial Pacific) had changed to Neutral. Normally Neutral would favor average to above average activity. In addition, water temperatures were near average to slightly above average this would normally enhance activity.
This is why several organizations predicted an average season. Most predicted 10-11 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes (Categories 3,4 and 5). In 1993 an average season would normally have 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. I was in grade school so I did not make a prediction. Now I have looked back and it is easy to see why they made those predictions. A Neutral ENSO would normally have produced average numbers.
Instead, the 1993 was below average, only 8 named storms developed, 4 became hurricanes and 1 became a major hurricane. So why was this season below average with only 8 named storms despite ENSO conditions?
The 1993 season shows us that all ingredients have to come together to produce an average to above average season. In 1993 you had favorable ENSO conditions, and average to above average water temperatures. However, above average Sahara dust persisted into the middle of August. August, September and October are the peak months. Moreover, there was more shearing winds present than they would normally be in a Neutral pattern. The dry air from the dust and shearing winds held development down.
Here are the storms from 1993. *means the hurricane was a major hurricane.
Tropical Storm Arlene- Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall in Texas as a tropical storm. Although it was not the strongest storm it caused a huge flooding disaster. Arlene caused $55 million in damages and 26 deaths due to flooding.
Tropical Storm Bret- Bret made landfall in Venezuela. The tropical storm caused historic flooding over 184 deaths have been attributed to Bret.
Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall in the Dominican Republic as a Tropical Storm. However data on Cindy is sparse.
Tropical Storm Dennis- Stayed out to sea
*Hurricane Emily was the strongest storm of the season becoming a category 3 hurricane. Emily did get close to North Carolina to cause wind damage even though the hurricane never came ashore. a couple of deaths were reported and close to $50 million in damages was done.
Hurricane Floyd stayed out to sea
Hurricane Gert- Gert was the most destructive storm of the 93 season. Gert developed in the Caribbean and eventually made it to the Gulf of Mexico. While in the Gulf Gert peaked as a 100 mph category 2 hurricane. The storm made landfall in Mexico at peak strength. Gert was very destructive in Mexico producing similar results to Hurricane Diana which also made landfall in Mexico as a category 2 hurricane in 1990. Gert caused 132 deaths and $170 million in damages.
Hurricane Harvey stayed out to sea.
No names were retired from the 93 season the following year. However, in my opinion Gert should have been retired. Hurricane Diana that produced identical results was retired the following year. I was shocked that Gert was not retired since Diana was. One reason Gert may not have been retired is Mexico was in an economic and political crisis. Due to being in a crisis that is probably why they did not request Gert's retirement. Bret was another name that some believed should have been retired. However, Venezuela brushed off the danger of Bret. This lead to a high amount of fatalities.
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