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US winter outlook for 2017/2018
What winter could hold for the US
What winter could hold for the US
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tornadocam
10-25-17 07:55 PM
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US winter outlook for 2017/2018
10-25-17 07:55 PM
tornadocam is Offline
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For those that do not I know I am into weather. I have been into weather since I was three years old. I have studied Meteorology for a long time. Last week on my blog I released my winter weather outlook for my area for 2017/2018. Seeing how there where not to many weather threads on this site. I thought I would release my winter weather outlook for the USA here. Fall is a time when the seasons start to change. Here in the USA it usually means warm days but cooler nights. The trees start to change colors. The biggest question people have is what type of winter is the USA going have? Winter this year will be impacted by La Nina. La Nina is when equatorial waters in the pacific ocean or -0.5 Celsius or colder for at least 4 months. That pattern is expected to continue into spring. The La Nina appears to be a low end one and not strong like the La Nina's of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Here in America La Nina typically means wild weather. I will be looking at each region of the United States. Alaska and Hawaii. The Western Part of Alaska will probably be slightly above normal in temps and rainfall. La Nina typically causes the western part to be warmer. The eastern part will be slightly cooler and average in terms of precipitation. The main factor here will be how the Gulf of Alaska cools. Sometimes during La Nina events the Gulf of Alaska can push very cold air into interior Alaska. The southeastern part will be wetter and cooler than normal due to an increase in storm tracks. Hawaii will be drier and warmer as the pineapple express jet stream will be father north as in typical La Nina events. Pacific Region (Includes Washington State, Oregon and California) Oregon and Washington will be cooler than average and have above average precipitation. The pineapple express will steer storm systems into this region. Western Washington and Oregon will have above average snowfall. California will be drier and warmer than average. I'm really concerned about wildfires in California for winter. Southwest Regions (includes Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Western Texas) With La Nina causing the jet stream to be farther north than a typical winter. This means the southwest will be very very dry. Temps will also be way above average. The only place that might have near average rainfall is Northern Nevada. Rocky Mountain Region (Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah and Colorado) Wyoming, Montana and Idaho will be cooler than average temperature wise. In fact, this area could have some really cold air masses due to cold air being pulled down. Winters in these states will be wetter and snowier than average. Utah and Colorado will have near average temps and precipitation. Midwest Region (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) The upper Midwest (Dakotas, Iowa, and Minnesota) Will be very cold and above average snow. I'm concerned of some significant snowstorms occurring in the upper Midwest. Also do not be surprised if temps on some winter nights drop below 0. Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio will have near average temps and way above average rainfall. Winter could be very slushy in this area with rain, ice and snow. The jet stream as in typical La Ninas is usually very active in this area. Missouri and Kansas will have a milder winter but above average in precipitation. Kansas and Missouri could have some good ice storms this year. South Region (West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and East Texas). Winter will be different in all three areas in the south. The upper south (Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, North Georgia, North Alabama and North Mississippi) I am expecting a wild winter in this area. This area will be right in the middle of storm tracks. Typically in La Nina phases this area gets everything ice, severe thunderstorms and even some snow. However with temps favoring a slightly above average trend .I am highly concerned about ice in this area esp if colder air gets pulled down from the upper mid west. Rainfall will be above average in this area. The Coastal South (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida) will be way below average in terms of rainfall. A temporary drought could set up in this region. Temps will be way above average. I am not expecting much of a winter in this area. The Lower South (Most of Mississippi, Most of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and eastern Texas will be very warm and very dry. Again a drought could set up in this part of the south. Mid Atlantic Region (Maryland, Delaware, DC, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Southeastern New York). Temps will be warmer than average. Maryland, Delaware, and DC could have a few ice storms. Due to warmer Atlantic Ocean temps colliding with the cooler air in the interior of the country. This can cause ice storms. Pennsylvania, Jersey, and Southeastern New York will have above average rainfall. Temps will be slightly above average. Northeast Region (Most of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Massachusetts). Weather will be very strange in this area. Normally winters are chilly in this area. This coming winter I am expecting above average temps even in the Great Lake areas. However, despite the warmer temps rainfall will be seasonable to above average in this area. So anyway winter across the States I am expecting to be wild and crazy. Certain parts of the country will have a wild winter. Areas that are normally cold will have a warm winter. Areas that naturally have milder winters will have a hot winter. Best chances for snow will be in the Northern Rockies, and most of the Midwest. Best chance for ice will be the lower Midwest, Upper South and Mid-Atlantic regions. These pattern are pretty consistent with low end La Nina's. In 2008 which was a low end La Nina the patterns were pretty close to what I mentioned. Looking at past lower end La Nina events we see a similar pattern. Moderate to Strong La Nina's typically cause colder conditions and more storm tracks. Similar to 1995/1996, 1998/1999, 2004/2005, and 2010-2012. Fall is a time when the seasons start to change. Here in the USA it usually means warm days but cooler nights. The trees start to change colors. The biggest question people have is what type of winter is the USA going have? Winter this year will be impacted by La Nina. La Nina is when equatorial waters in the pacific ocean or -0.5 Celsius or colder for at least 4 months. That pattern is expected to continue into spring. The La Nina appears to be a low end one and not strong like the La Nina's of 2010, 2011 and 2012. Here in America La Nina typically means wild weather. I will be looking at each region of the United States. Alaska and Hawaii. The Western Part of Alaska will probably be slightly above normal in temps and rainfall. La Nina typically causes the western part to be warmer. The eastern part will be slightly cooler and average in terms of precipitation. The main factor here will be how the Gulf of Alaska cools. Sometimes during La Nina events the Gulf of Alaska can push very cold air into interior Alaska. The southeastern part will be wetter and cooler than normal due to an increase in storm tracks. Hawaii will be drier and warmer as the pineapple express jet stream will be father north as in typical La Nina events. Pacific Region (Includes Washington State, Oregon and California) Oregon and Washington will be cooler than average and have above average precipitation. The pineapple express will steer storm systems into this region. Western Washington and Oregon will have above average snowfall. California will be drier and warmer than average. I'm really concerned about wildfires in California for winter. Southwest Regions (includes Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Western Texas) With La Nina causing the jet stream to be farther north than a typical winter. This means the southwest will be very very dry. Temps will also be way above average. The only place that might have near average rainfall is Northern Nevada. Rocky Mountain Region (Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah and Colorado) Wyoming, Montana and Idaho will be cooler than average temperature wise. In fact, this area could have some really cold air masses due to cold air being pulled down. Winters in these states will be wetter and snowier than average. Utah and Colorado will have near average temps and precipitation. Midwest Region (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) The upper Midwest (Dakotas, Iowa, and Minnesota) Will be very cold and above average snow. I'm concerned of some significant snowstorms occurring in the upper Midwest. Also do not be surprised if temps on some winter nights drop below 0. Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio will have near average temps and way above average rainfall. Winter could be very slushy in this area with rain, ice and snow. The jet stream as in typical La Ninas is usually very active in this area. Missouri and Kansas will have a milder winter but above average in precipitation. Kansas and Missouri could have some good ice storms this year. South Region (West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and East Texas). Winter will be different in all three areas in the south. The upper south (Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, North Georgia, North Alabama and North Mississippi) I am expecting a wild winter in this area. This area will be right in the middle of storm tracks. Typically in La Nina phases this area gets everything ice, severe thunderstorms and even some snow. However with temps favoring a slightly above average trend .I am highly concerned about ice in this area esp if colder air gets pulled down from the upper mid west. Rainfall will be above average in this area. The Coastal South (Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida) will be way below average in terms of rainfall. A temporary drought could set up in this region. Temps will be way above average. I am not expecting much of a winter in this area. The Lower South (Most of Mississippi, Most of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and eastern Texas will be very warm and very dry. Again a drought could set up in this part of the south. Mid Atlantic Region (Maryland, Delaware, DC, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Southeastern New York). Temps will be warmer than average. Maryland, Delaware, and DC could have a few ice storms. Due to warmer Atlantic Ocean temps colliding with the cooler air in the interior of the country. This can cause ice storms. Pennsylvania, Jersey, and Southeastern New York will have above average rainfall. Temps will be slightly above average. Northeast Region (Most of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Massachusetts). Weather will be very strange in this area. Normally winters are chilly in this area. This coming winter I am expecting above average temps even in the Great Lake areas. However, despite the warmer temps rainfall will be seasonable to above average in this area. So anyway winter across the States I am expecting to be wild and crazy. Certain parts of the country will have a wild winter. Areas that are normally cold will have a warm winter. Areas that naturally have milder winters will have a hot winter. Best chances for snow will be in the Northern Rockies, and most of the Midwest. Best chance for ice will be the lower Midwest, Upper South and Mid-Atlantic regions. These pattern are pretty consistent with low end La Nina's. In 2008 which was a low end La Nina the patterns were pretty close to what I mentioned. Looking at past lower end La Nina events we see a similar pattern. Moderate to Strong La Nina's typically cause colder conditions and more storm tracks. Similar to 1995/1996, 1998/1999, 2004/2005, and 2010-2012. |
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10-26-17 11:56 PM
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Interesting forecast. I think the lack of rainfall and above average temperatures sound about right. The last few winters have been pitiful as far as snowy weather and rain go, so I am not all that surprised that this winter won't be much different. It would be nice to get at least a few good snow days here and there, but even that doesn't seem likely. |
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10-30-17 08:32 AM
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Looks like your stuff came true in the NY area as it was really weird with the storms that we had yesterday into today. Wasn't anywhere as bad as they said it would be but it was probably the worst I have seen in years.
P.S. How many times have you seen the movie Geostorm? P.S. How many times have you seen the movie Geostorm? |
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10-30-17 02:07 PM
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