The 2024 Hurricane Season started off with an active June as 3 named storms including 1 hurricane developed. However, since July no new named storms have developed. I was on social media yesterday and people where stating had us Meteorologist missed this years hurricane forecast.

I had originally called for 17-23 named storms, I do a final forecast around August 10th. NOAA called for 18-25, and Colorado State called for 22-29 named storms. The reason me and other meteorologists forecasted an active season was El Nino was fading and La Nina is expected to develop. I looked at water temperatures in the ENSO region of the Equatorial Pacific right now they are -0.4°C below average. This is still in the neural state. As Neutral is when water temps are -0.5°C to 0.5°C. When water temps cool down to cooler than -0.5°C La Nina will be in effect. La Nina is expected in September. Right now we are in cool Neutral. Cool Neutral to a La Nina would favor an active season.

Is it normal for hurricane seasons to start off slow during a cool Neutral or La Nina phase? The answer is it is not unusual at all. In fact, the peak of the hurricane season is August 15th-October 20th. Thus, August, September, and October are the peak months. Even November has had its share of hurricanes. Typically, we do not see our 3rd name storm until August, so we are ahead of schedule.

In June we see development in the Gulf, Gulf Stream, or Caribbean. This year's Alberto and Chris developed where an early season storm would normally develop. Beryl formed in the far Atlantic a place that does not see development till August to early October. Right now the reason the Atlantic is calm is it is dominated by Saharan Dust.

Saharan Dust occurs when the pre-monsoon winds blow desert sand into the atmosphere creating dust. If conditions are right this dust can reach the central United States. The dust causes very dry air and inhibits development. In August the monsoon trough starts and the Dust usually fades. That is why it seems this season is starting off slow.

Here are active seasons that started off slow during a cool neutral or La Nina pattern in the ENSO.

1990- The first named storm did not form until late July. The second named storm formed on the last day of July. However, August, September, and October where busy with tropical systems. The Season produced 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and a total ACE of 96.90. This was above the average of 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The average season would produce a total ACE of 80-100.

1998- The El Nino of 1997 faded in February 1998. A La Nina quickly developed by May La Nina was in full swing. This La Nina would last 3 years. The 1998 season was a very active season, but it started off slow. The first named storm did not form until middle late July. August, September, October, and November was humming with tropical storm development. The season ended up being way above average with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The seasons total ACE was 182.

1999- was a La Nina year. The first storm developed in June. However, there was a 2 month gap before the next storm developed. The second named storm did not develop until August then came the flood. August, September, October, and November where very active. The season was above average with 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes and a total ACE of 176.50. Like 1998 the season featured a lot of long lived hurricanes.

2000- was a continuation of the 1998 La Nina. The first named storm did not develop until August. The rest of the months where active with the last named storm dissipating in early November. The season was above average with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and a total ACE of 119.50.

2007- The El Nino of 2006 faded in Spring of 2007. Conditions changed to cool Neutral. In September La Nina developed. The 2007 season started off slow with a few short lived systems. However, August, September, October, and November was above average. One storm developed in December. Overall the season was above average with 15 named storms, near average in hurricanes, and major hurricanes. The seasons ACE was 74 which was slightly below average. However, a lot of the storms developed close to land.

2019- El Nino of fall 2018 faded by Spring of 2019. Conditions eventually changed to Neutral, by August cool Neutral had set up. While the first storm formed in May and the second one in early July there was a 6 week gap between the 3rd named storm. Then came the flood of activity. The last storm dissipated in Middle November. The season was above average with 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

2022- 2022 was a continuation of the 2020 La Nina. The first few storms developed in June and July. However, no storms developed in August a rarity. Then the tropics came to life in September, October, and November. Overall, the season was average with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 96.

Indeed, it is not unusual for the tropics to start off slow even during a cool Neutral or a La Nina phase. History tells us the tropics should come to life in the next few months. That is also the consensus among us Meteorologists. Water temperatures are way above average, and there is not that much wind shear. The only thing keeping the tropics in check is the dry Saharan dust. Once the dust settles look out.

What about 1992? Hurricane Andrew occurred in late August which is so un-normally late for a hurricane season, and I've seen the 2006 season start early with sub-tropical storm Arlene

classgame: 1992 was a warm neutral year and not a cool Neutral or a La Nina. The 1992 season was a below average season with only 7 named storms developing. However you are correct Andrew did not develop until the second half of the Month. There have also been pre season storms and out of season storms. The 2006 season was an El Nino season.