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07-03-24 09:16 AM
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Hurricane Beryl

 

07-03-24 09:16 AM
tornadocam is Offline
| ID: 1407996 | 631 Words

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The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The Peak is August 10th-October 20th. Thus, August, September, and October are the most active months. This is also usually when major hurricanes develop. Major Hurricanes are hurricanes that reach categories 3, 4 and 5.

Hurricane Beryl peaked as a category 5 hurricane with winds up to 165 mph. While the Atlantic has had several category 5 hurricanes most occurred in August, September, and October. Until Beryl developed the Atlantic had never had a category 4 or 5 hurricane in the month of June. Before Beryl became a category 5 hurricane the earliest category 5 was 2005's Hurricane Emily which was a category 5 hurricane in July.

In fact, there has only been 3 major hurricanes in the month of June. Audrey from 1957, Alma from 1966, and now Beryl from 2024. Also what was unusual about Beryl is the region of the Atlantic it developed in. For the month of June usually tropical systems develop in the Gulf or Western Caribbean. Beryl formed in the far Atlantic. A region that does not usually see development until August, September, and October. Sometimes the far Atlantic has seen hurricanes develop in late July.

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. This wave was farther south and avoided the Saharan Dust. Due to above average water temperatures the tropical wave begin to organize. It was soon named Tropical Storm Beryl. Beryl continued to strengthen becoming a hurricane the following day. Due to no wind shear, a moist environment, and very warm water. Beryl was able to rapidly intensify. It went from a Category 1 to a category 3 hurricane. Then it became a high end category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in Grenada and St. Vincent. Once in the Caribbean Beryl weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle. Once the cycle was complete Beryl regained category 4 status and then category 5 status.

Beryl is expected to make landfall in Jamaica as a major hurricane and then Mexico as a high end category 1 hurricane or category 2 hurricane.

This is why Beryl is so historic is that its the earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic Ocean. Second, its only the 3rd major hurricane in the month of June. Third, it formed in a region that usually does not see development until later on in the season.

So how could a storm like Beryl develop this early?

First, water temperatures are way above average. This is caused by several factors that tie into each other. The Atlantic Basin is in the second active phase which started in 1995. An active phase allows above average seasons. This ties into Positive Atlantic Osculation or ASO. Positive ASO causes above average water temperatures.

Second, ENSO conditions are changing the El Nino has faded. Right now conditions are Neutral. Neutral would favor average to slightly above average seasons. However, a La Nina is trying to develop. La NIna's favor above average Atlantic Activity. A La Nina would cause above average water temperatures, less wind shear, and a moist atmosphere. Key ingredients for tropical development.

Third, Climate change. Climate change is real. The debate is Climate Change Natural, Human caused, or a mix of both. I am not going to get into the debate on which one it is. But Climate change is also effecting the water temperatures. Add positive ASO and a Neutral/La NIna to the mix and its a recipe for powerful hurricanes.

All of these ingredients came together to allow Beryl to become a monster. When Beryl is finally gone it will go down as a historic hurricane for sure. As I stated a hurricane like Beryl would normally occur in August, September, and October not June.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The Peak is August 10th-October 20th. Thus, August, September, and October are the most active months. This is also usually when major hurricanes develop. Major Hurricanes are hurricanes that reach categories 3, 4 and 5.

Hurricane Beryl peaked as a category 5 hurricane with winds up to 165 mph. While the Atlantic has had several category 5 hurricanes most occurred in August, September, and October. Until Beryl developed the Atlantic had never had a category 4 or 5 hurricane in the month of June. Before Beryl became a category 5 hurricane the earliest category 5 was 2005's Hurricane Emily which was a category 5 hurricane in July.

In fact, there has only been 3 major hurricanes in the month of June. Audrey from 1957, Alma from 1966, and now Beryl from 2024. Also what was unusual about Beryl is the region of the Atlantic it developed in. For the month of June usually tropical systems develop in the Gulf or Western Caribbean. Beryl formed in the far Atlantic. A region that does not usually see development until August, September, and October. Sometimes the far Atlantic has seen hurricanes develop in late July.

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. This wave was farther south and avoided the Saharan Dust. Due to above average water temperatures the tropical wave begin to organize. It was soon named Tropical Storm Beryl. Beryl continued to strengthen becoming a hurricane the following day. Due to no wind shear, a moist environment, and very warm water. Beryl was able to rapidly intensify. It went from a Category 1 to a category 3 hurricane. Then it became a high end category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in Grenada and St. Vincent. Once in the Caribbean Beryl weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle. Once the cycle was complete Beryl regained category 4 status and then category 5 status.

Beryl is expected to make landfall in Jamaica as a major hurricane and then Mexico as a high end category 1 hurricane or category 2 hurricane.

This is why Beryl is so historic is that its the earliest Category 5 on record in the Atlantic Ocean. Second, its only the 3rd major hurricane in the month of June. Third, it formed in a region that usually does not see development until later on in the season.

So how could a storm like Beryl develop this early?

First, water temperatures are way above average. This is caused by several factors that tie into each other. The Atlantic Basin is in the second active phase which started in 1995. An active phase allows above average seasons. This ties into Positive Atlantic Osculation or ASO. Positive ASO causes above average water temperatures.

Second, ENSO conditions are changing the El Nino has faded. Right now conditions are Neutral. Neutral would favor average to slightly above average seasons. However, a La Nina is trying to develop. La NIna's favor above average Atlantic Activity. A La Nina would cause above average water temperatures, less wind shear, and a moist atmosphere. Key ingredients for tropical development.

Third, Climate change. Climate change is real. The debate is Climate Change Natural, Human caused, or a mix of both. I am not going to get into the debate on which one it is. But Climate change is also effecting the water temperatures. Add positive ASO and a Neutral/La NIna to the mix and its a recipe for powerful hurricanes.

All of these ingredients came together to allow Beryl to become a monster. When Beryl is finally gone it will go down as a historic hurricane for sure. As I stated a hurricane like Beryl would normally occur in August, September, and October not June.
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07-04-24 07:26 AM
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man I'll bet this storm name will get retired when it's done granted I will be shocked if it does
man I'll bet this storm name will get retired when it's done granted I will be shocked if it does
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07-04-24 08:26 PM
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classgame: Beryl has done a lot of destruction. Only impacted areas can request retirement. In this case it would be St. Vincent, Grenada, Jamaica, and Mexico. Its really 50/50 the record of hurricanes like this impacting these countries is mixed. Dean impacted Jamaica and Mexico and was retired. Emily caused damage in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Mexico where it made landfall twice, but Emily was not retired.

I can see Beryl going either way. There have only been 3 B names retired: Beulah, Betsy, and Bob.
classgame: Beryl has done a lot of destruction. Only impacted areas can request retirement. In this case it would be St. Vincent, Grenada, Jamaica, and Mexico. Its really 50/50 the record of hurricanes like this impacting these countries is mixed. Dean impacted Jamaica and Mexico and was retired. Emily caused damage in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Mexico where it made landfall twice, but Emily was not retired.

I can see Beryl going either way. There have only been 3 B names retired: Beulah, Betsy, and Bob.
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07-09-24 09:33 AM
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and I found out this morning that the remnants are expected to hit parts of Ontario and Quebec

and I found out this morning that the remnants are expected to hit parts of Ontario and Quebec

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07-09-24 05:15 PM
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classgame: Yes that is true the main threat will be heavy rain and thunderstorms. The good news is it is no longer tropical it will be like a typical storm system.
classgame: Yes that is true the main threat will be heavy rain and thunderstorms. The good news is it is no longer tropical it will be like a typical storm system.
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